Tulum Mexico’s high population growth: immigration, marriage and births

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tulum is a booming town, no crisis seems to affect the optimism of its fast growing population (total population in the Tulum municipality reached 28.283 in 2010).  In the recent 2-3 years, Tulum boasted a population growth rate in the range of 12%-15%, overtaking Playa del Carmen as the fastest growing city in Mexico.

The fast growth is fueled by immigration, both internal and from foreigners, and by the high ratio of births/deaths (737/51 in 2009).  Another curious detail that explains fast growth is the high number of marriages versus divorces: 324 against 6.  The number of marriages might be somehow overstated as a lot of visitors chose Tulum for a beach wedding, but they do settle in Tulum.

I guess these demographics have direct influence in the good mood of Tulumers.  And definitely bode well for real estate development.

 

What are the best months to visit the Mayan Riviera/Tulum

Almost anytime is good to visit the Mayan Riviera, but for me the best season to visit the Mayan Riviera is February through May, excluding the Easter week.  In the period  May/August it can get extremely hot.   December and January may present a few chill weeks, and X-mas and New Year is too crowded. Then, August through November are the months with the highest probability of hurricanes (peak is August/September), and it rains almost everyday (though there is also sunshine at least some 4-5 hours a day and you can enjoy the beach).

Peak seasons are X-Mas/New Year and Easter for Mexicans, the December/February cold months for the Canadians, August for the Europeans and January/February for the South Americans.   Mexican schools close in July/August for summer holidays, so you will see more Mexican families these two months.

If you are a bargain hunter then your months are October and November.  Occupation rates reaches their lows, and most hotels and cabanas offer incredible low prices (up to 70% less than in peak season).

Tulum Airport (Aeropuerto de la Riviera Maya) project is suspended again

 

Last friday (September 2nd, 2011), the Mexican federal secretary of Transport and Communications Dionisio Pérez Jácome announced the Tulum Airport project will be suspended again, along with other four important infrastructure projecs in Mexico (a port in Baja California and suburban trains in Mexico City).

The official reason behind this surprising decision was that “all the projects required a new return on investment analysis”.  Other off-the-record versions indicate the Mexican Government could be embarking in an austerity plan do the shaky status of the global financial markets, while other say the lobby from ASUR, the operator of the Cancún airport may have played a role.

The Mayan Riviera Airport (Tulum Airport) project to be re-launched in July


Expectation for the re-launch of the Mayan Riviera Airport project is rising as Quintana Roo’s Governor, Mr Roberto Borge Angulo announced that he is expecting the head of the SCT (the federal Communitations and Transport secretariat) Dionisio Pérez-Jácome Friscione to visit the Mayan Riviera before the end of the month. The main purpose of the visit would be the airport project announcement.

Mr Angulo also commented on the recent approval by the Environment Secretariat (SEMARNAT) of a new highway, a 26 km (16 miles) detour that will circumvent the Tulum town and will have a 5.7km (3.5 miles) deviation leading into the new airport.

The Mayan Riviera Airport (Tulum) auction will be re-launched

 

Last June 13th 2011, the under-secretary of Infrastructure Fausto Barajas confirmed that the international bidding process for the construction of the Mayan Riviera Airport (the Tulum Airport) will be re-launched after the failed auction of last May 20th.  Mr Fausto Barajas confirmed the development of tourism infrastructure is high priority for the SCT (Transport and Communications Secretariat).

The announcement happened just after a meeting between the governor of the Quintana Roo state (where Tulum, Playa del Carmen and Cancun are located) Mr Roberto Borge Angulo and Dionisio Pérez Jácome, the head of the SCT.

The auction still does not have a date, the functionaries committed publicly to start working on that after the said announcement.  The project has a priority in the federal agenda as the tourism sector represents just over 10% of Mexico’s GDP.   The Mayan Riviera Airport project is estimated to cost some $270m, and there were at least 5 groups interested in the previous auction.

 

 

The Tulum Airport (Aeropuerto de la Riviera Maya) not dead

The Tulum (Mexico) Airport project is back and actively pushed by the Quintana Roo’s (the Mexican State where Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum are located) Roberto Borge Angulo.  He had just (June 13th, 2011) had a meeting with the head of the SCT, the Federal Government transport secretariat, Mr. Dionisio Pérez Jácome to claim for a renewed bidding process.  A former bidding process was declared “void” in May 2011 as according to the SCT none of the bidders complied with the technical requirements asked by the Federal Government.

Despite some people are suspicious the project could be a victim of a political struggle (the state is run by the PRI party, while the Federal Government is in the hands of the PAN party), the Tulum/Riviera Maya Airport project was sponsored by Juan Carlos Pereyra Escudero, a PRI state representative and supported unanimously by all the other parties in the Quintana Roo state, including the PAN.

 

Riviera Maya Airport (Tulum Airport) auction cancellation challenged by Grupo Mexico

Grupo Mexico (a large Mexican mining conglomerate) and its airport operation partners of Grupo Aeroportuario Pacifico (GAP) have just (June 1st 2011) challenged the Mexican Transport regulatory body’s (SCT) decision to cancel the auction of the Riviera Maya Airport (Tulum Airport).

On May 20th 2011, the SCT had found none of the technical offers had complied the Government requisites to build and operate the Tulum airport, expected to handle over 700.000 passengers a year.

The Grupo Mexico/GAP consortia and the Cancun Airport operator (ASUR-Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste) are having a strong lobby battle to determine if the latter can keep the monopoly on the Yucatan Peninsula best known beach resorts.

All these battles will have an important effect on Tulum real estate and developments.  There are a lot of speculative land developments on the area near the airport project.  Gossip goes around that top local politicians have heavily invested in land around the airfield.

 

Riviera Maya Airport postponed

On May 20th, the Mexican Communications and Transport Secretariat declined all the technical offers for the construction of the Riviera Maya Airport (Tulum Airport).  At least 5 consortia of Mexican and multinational groups where bidding to build and operate the Mayan Riviera Airport.  The airport was expected to start operating in 2014.

The Mexican Government has not yet commented on the results, however lobby from ASUR – the Cancun airport operators (a neighbor airport enjoying the monopoly on the Yucatan Peninsula best resorts) is assumed to have used a substantial lobby against the project.

Tulum real estate, rising prices and positive forecast in the next years

According to Francisco Mijares Ortiz (head of the appraisers association of the Quintana Roo State that includes the cities of Cancun, Playa del Carmen and Tulum) the outlook for Tulum real estate is bright in the coming 5 years.  Already in 2011, Playa del Carmen has overtaken Cancun as the most expensive property city in the Mayan Riviera, and Tulum is expected to evolve in the same direction due to a number of reasons.

Cancun, especially downtown (where no tourists go)  was somehow affected by the insecurity stemming from the narco war, while Playa del Carmen and Tulum have remained untouched so far.  But additionally, there are other factors that have played against Cancun: massiveness and overdevelopment.   The new luxury developments in Playa del Carmen are smaller buildings, with better architecture and located near the 5th Avenue, allowing for a pedestrian life and evening walks to restaurants and shops.  On the contrary, Cancun offers resort secluded life, and the need to have a car or a taxi to go dining outside.

Tulum has big advantages on both Cancun and Playa del Carmen.  As it is in its early development, it has the chance of an orderly growth, it has less poverty in the outskirts and it is much more eco-friendly.  Beaches are well preserved as no construction is allowed on the beachfront (only the existing thatched roof cabanas).  Since the beachfront will be preserved, all the development will have to be inland, making sure the beaches will remain pristine.

The construction of the Tulum Airport (Mayan Riviera Airport) will be another factor pushing up the Tulum real estate prices.  Nowadays, it takes some 90 minutes to drive from the closest airport (Cancun) to Tulum.  The airport is expected to start operating in 2013.

There are some some main 3 areas of real estate development in Tulum: Aldea Zama, the lots around Kukulkan Avenue and the jungle developments.

Aldea Zama is a big development between the current Tulum downtown and the beach.  It boasts good infrastructure and cared architecture and offers both commercial and residential lots.  Aldea Zama’s goal is to replace the existing Tulum downtown for the main commercial activity (restaurants, supermarkets, banks, etc) and become the “new Tulum town”.   The area around the new Kukulkan avenue offers big urban lots, in a new part of the Tulum town, closer to a new access to the beach.  To the west of the Cancun-Tulum highway there are many new development projects offering bigger lots (2-4 acres) in a jungle surrounding.  Some of these projects are “green” and have strict eco-friendly regulations.  Some of the most know projects are Vive Riviera Maya and Los Arboles Tulum.

All the 3 areas present high appreciation potential most certainly become good investments if bought early enough.

 

Tulum will have its own airport

So far, to get to Tulum you need to fly to Cancun, 90 minutes away by car.  The development of the Tulum airport (Mayan Riviera Airport) will make it a lot easier and faster to get to Tulum.

On April 27th 2011, the competing groups Tradeco, Grupo Mexico, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, Aeropuerto de Cancun, Servicios Aeroportuarios del Surest y Haig Gulesserian presented their technical and financial proposals to build and operate the airport.

The SCT (Mexico’s transport and communications regulatory body) now has 18 days to review the technical proposal and go ahead with the financial offers of the finalists.

The prices of the land and the new real estate developments in around Tulum (many of them on the airport area) are expected to raise as a result of the better access.